Quina vergonya senyor Monegal, quin oprobi. Vergonya pel massatget que li va practicar a aquest element menyspreable, i a sobre fent-li publicitat del vinil que acaba de treure.

Això és publicitat oi?

També paga cànon el vinil? Alerta! Molta canya al chumari, a la dels 21 dies i d’altres pardalets però al negre voltor aquest, sabó. Molt de sabó.

Surrealista, la veritat no me’n se avenir.

D’on treu vostè els invitats? Ramoncín, lo puto Ramoncín, que no fot res a la tele des de fa segles. Jurat d’OT? Però qué és això? Que em tornin els diners que ha costat portar el pàjaru aquest a casa nostra. Un dels personatges més repudiats del panorama cultural espanyol massatgeat pel mossegador oficial del regne. S’ha preguntat perqué li van fotre de pedrades? Qué creu que ha de fer un músic per que li facin fora d’un escenari a base de pedres, desafinar potser? Coneix bé la trajectòria de l’element que va ensabonar l’altre dia? Si ni tan sols gosava tallar els infumables monòlegs que li anava soltant, per favor!

Si ha estat una imposició des de dalt, permeti’m la observació que se l’han ben ficada, amb perdó. Sino, ja li val, Monegal: no ho entenc. He estat al seu programa com espectador i li ben asseguro que si m’arriba a tocar presenciar el massatge tailandés que li va practicar a aquest pollastre hauria perdut vosté un membre del públic als cinc minuts. La pitjor entrevista que he vist en molts anys de fidel seguidor.

Últim vinil de Ramoncín

No hay día en que el crispómetro no se me altere. Hoy, entre otras perlas que me han disparado la glándula de la mala uva destaca esto: resulta que hay una frecuencia, la 17.4 kHz, que sólamente es capaz de oir la muchachada de hasta unos 25 años más o menos. A partir de esa edad, como otras tantas cosas, tu oido interno se empieza a cascar y pierdes la capacidad de captar esa longitud de onda.

Qué se le ha ocurrido a un lumbreras con visión de negocio? Pues distribuir un cacharrete que por el módico precio de 700 leros emite un puto ruido a unos simpáticos 100 Db en esta frecuencia más molesto que un eructo de Carmen de Mairena en la nuca.

Consecuencias: si no sois muy viejunos podéis catarlas en este enlace y unos altavoces. Si por desgracia vuestras sienes empiezan a blanquear y vuestros penes ya no son los martillos neumáticos repartidores de placer que eran antes, podéis comprar este simpático parato. Por fin podréis mantener a raya a esa peligrosa e incontrolable chusma que componen los menores de 30 años, enchufándolo en cualquier lugar frecuentado por ese despreciable colectivo que tantos problemas da.

Recientes declaraciones de su inventor, el ilustre catedrático en Joputismo Aplicado Dr. Paken de Copenhague, abren un abanico de posibles aplicaciones de este descubrimiento.

El Prof. Paken tras aliviarse

“Es una innovación fantástica: puede ustez controlar a toda una manada de chavales borrachos en celo para que se larguen de su plaza, calle o portal! Y tódo con un simple mando a distancia! Incluso podemos evitar las campanas o pellas de la juventud rodeando los institutos con el sonido de nuestro parato en horas de clase e insonorizando el interior, de manera que si a algún listo se le ocurre salir afuera le hacemos aullar de dolor limpiamente y sin ensuciarnos las manos. Mientras, a su lado, los jubilados juegan a petanca tranquilamente.

Asesores de seguridad del ayuntamiento de Barcelona ya nos han pedido una importante remesa del cacharro para aplicar de una forma más eficiente la Ordenanza de Civismo y Subyugación: todo sea por servir a la Ciudadanía. Incluso nos han financiado a manos llenas la investigación de nuevas frecuencias audibles sólo por segmentos cada vez más específicos de la población para así reprimirlos cada vez mejor: ya estamos trabajando en descubrir las que afectan a colectivos despreciables como prestitutas, lateros y votantes de CiU. Estoy convencido que mi invento conseguirá hacer de ésta nuestra sociedad un lugar más justo, seguro y feliz.“

Esta mañana llegó a mi puerta una pareja bien vestida y bien peinada. El hombre habló primero:
	Me fumaun porro
Juan:	“Hola, yo soy Juan y esta es María. “
María:	“Hola, estamos aquí para invitarte a besarle el culo a Jorge con nosotros.”
Yo:	“¿Cómo? ¿De que estás hablando? ¿Quién es Jorge? ¿Y por qué tendría que querer besarle el culo? “
Juan:	“Si tú le besas el culo a Jorge, te da un millón de dólares; y si no lo haces te cubre de mierda. “
Yo:	“¿Cómo? ¿Es que es alguna clase de extraño pervertido? “
Juan:	“Es un filántropo multibillionario. Jorge construyó este pueblo. Jorge posée este pueblo. Él puede hacer lo que quiera, y lo que quiere es darte un millón de dólares, pero no puede si tú no le besas el culo. “
Yo:	“Eso no parece tener mucho sentido. ¿Por qué… “
María:	“¿Quién eres tú para cuestionar los deseos de Jorge? ¿Es que no quieres el millón de dólares? ¿Es demasiado un pequeño beso en el culo? “
Yo:	“Bueno, quizás, si es legítimo, pero… “
Juan:	“Entoces vamos a besarle el culo a Jorge. “
Yo:	“¿Le besan el culo a Jorge con frecuencia? “
María:	“Oh sí, continuamente. “
Yo:	“¿Y les ha dado el millón de dólares? “
Juan:	“Bien, aún no. No se puede recibir el dinero hasta que no te mudes del pueblo. “
Yo:	“Entonces, ¿por qué no se van del pueblo y reciben el millón de dólares? “
María:	“No puedes irte del pueblo hasta que Jorge te lo diga, o de lo contrario no recibes el dinero y él te cubre de mierda. “
Yo:	“¿Conocen a alguien que le haya besado el culo a Jorge, que se haya ido y que después haya regresado con el dinero? “
Juan:	“Mi madre le besó el culo a Jorge durante años. Ella se fue el año pasado y estoy seguro que tiene el dinero. “
Yo:	“¿Has hablado con ella desde entonces? “
Juan:	“Por supuesto que no, Jorge no lo permite. “
Yo:	“Entoces ¿cómo sabes que tiene el dinero si no has hablado con nadie que lo haya recibido? “
María:	“Bueno, antes de que te desanimes él te da una pequeña muestra. Tal vez obtengas un aumento, tal vez ganes un pequeño premio en la lotería, tal vez encuentres un billete de veinte dólares en la calle. “
Yo:	“¿Y eso qué tiene que ver con Jorge? “
Juan:	“Jorge tiene ciertas “conecciones”. “
Yo:	“Lo siento, pero esto suena como si fuera un extraño juego de consola. “
Juan:	“Pero es un millón de dólares, ¿puedes realmente arriesgarte a perderlo? Y recuerda: si no le besas el culo te cubre de mierda. “
Yo:	“Tal vez si pudiera verlo, hablar con él, tener detalles sobre él… “
María:	“Nadie ve a Jorge, nadie habla con él. “
Yo:	“¿Entonces cómo le besan el culo? “
Juan:	“En ocasiones únicamente le mandamos un beso pensando en su culo. Otras veces le besamos el culo a Carlos y él se lo transmite a Jorge. “
Yo:	“¿Quién es Carlos? “
María:	“Un amigo nuestro. Él es quien nos ha hablado sobre besarle el culo a Jorge. Todo lo que tenemos que hacer es invitarlo a comer de vez en cuando. “
Yo:	“¿Y creyeron en sus palabras cuando dijo que existe un Jorge, que Jorge quiere que le besen el culo y que los recompensará? “
Juan:	“¡Oh no! Carlos tiene una carta de Jorge de hace mucho tiempo donde lo explica todo. Aquí tienes una copia para tí, míralo por ti mismo: “
	Del Escritorio de Carlos Bésale el culo a Jorge y él te dará un millón de dólares cuando te vayas del pueblo. Bebe alcohol con moderación. Cubre de mierda a quellos que no sean como tú. Come bien. Jorge dictó esta carta él mismo. La Luna está hecha de queso verde. Todo lo que dice Jorge es cierto. Lávate las manos despúes de ir al baño. No uses alcohol. Come tus salchichas en bollos y sin condimentos. Besale el culo a Jorge o te cubrirá de mierda.
Yo:	“Esto está escrito en papel con el membrete de Carlos. “
María:	“Jorge no tiene papel. “
Yo:	“Tengo la impresión de que si lo comparamos encontraremos que ésta es la letra de Carlos. “
Juan:	“Por supuesto, pero Jorge dictó la carta. “
Yo:	“Pensaba que decían que nadie puede ver a Jorge. “
María:	“No ahora, pero hace tiempo le habló a algunas personas. “
Yo:	“Pensaba que decían que era un filántropo. ¿Qué tipo de filántropo cubre de mierda a la gente sólo porque es diferente? “
María:	“Eso es lo que Jorge quiere, y Jorge siempre está en lo cierto. “
Yo:	“¿De dónde sacas eso? “
María:	“El punto 7 dice que: “todo lo que dice Jorge es cierto”. ¡Eso es suficiente para mí! “
Yo:	“Quizás su mismo amigo Carlos hizo las normas. “
Juan:	“¡Imposible! El punto 5 dice: “Jorge dictó esta carta él mismo”. Al mismo tiempo, el punto 2 dice: “bebe con moderación”. El punto 4 dice: “come bien”. Y el punto 8 dice: “lávate las manos espúes de ir al baño”. Todo el mundo sabe que eso es cierto, por lo tanto, todo lo demás debe ser cierto también. “
Yo:	“Pero el punto 9 dice: “no uses alcohol”, lo cual entra en conflicto con el punto 2, y el 6 dice: “la Luna está hecha de queso verde”, lo cual no es cierto. “
Juan:	“No existe contradicción entre los puntos 2 y 9, el segundo simplemente clarifica el primero. Y por lo que respecta al 6, tú nunca has estado en la Luna, por lo que no puedes hablar con esa seguridad. “
Yo:	“Los científicos tienen claramente establecido que la Luna está hecha de roca… “
María:	“Pero ellos no saben si la roca viene de la Tierra o del espacio exterior, por lo que puede ser fácilmente queso verde. “
Yo:	“Realmente no soy un experto, pero pienso que la teoría de que la Luna fue “capturada” por la Tierra ha sido descartada. Por otra parte, no saber de dónde viene la roca no la convierte en queso, y menos queso verde. “
Juan:	“¡Ajá! Acabas de admitir que los científicos cometen errores ¡pero nosotros sabemos que lo que dice Jorge es cierto! “
Yo:	“¿Lo sabemos? “
María:	“Por supuesto, el punto 7 lo dice. “
Yo:	“Están diciendo que Jorge siempre está en lo cierto porque la carta lo dice, que la carta es cierta porque Jorge la dictó, y que sabemos que Jorge la dictó porque la carta lo dice. Esta lógica circular no se diferencía en nada de decir que Jorge siempre dice la verdad porque lo dice Jorge. “
Juan:	“¡Ya lo está comprendiendo! Es reconfortante ver que alguien se acerca a la forma de pensar de Jorge. “
Yo:	“Pero… Oh, no te preocupes. ¿Cuál es el trato con las salchichas? “
(María se sonroja.)
Juan:	“Las salchichas en bollos y sin condimentos. Ésta es la forma de Jorge. Cualquier otra forma es incorrecta. “
Yo:	“¿Qué pasa si no tengo bollos? “
Juan:	“No hay bollo, no hay salchicha. Una salchicha sin bollo es algo incorrecto. “
Yo:	“¿Sin salsa? ¿Sin mostaza? “
María:	“(Asombrada) Parece irremediablemente condenado. “
Juan:	“(Gritando) ¡No hay ninguna ambigüedad en su lenguaje! ¡Cualquier tipo de condimento está prohibido! “
Yo:	“Entonces de una enorme pila de chucrut con algunas salchicas pinchadas en ella ni hablamos, ¿no? “
María:	“(Poniéndose los dedos en los oidos) No te estoy oyendo, na, na, na, na, na, na, na… “
Juan:	“(Con cara de aversión) ¡Eso es repelente! No sé qué clase de demonio comería eso… “
Yo:	“¡Alfredito! Él lo come todo el tiempo. “
(María palidece.)
Juan:	“(Tomando a María) Bueno, si hubiera sabido que eras “uno de esos” no habría perdido mi tiempo. Cuando Jorge te cubra de mierda yo estaré allí, contando mi dinero y burlándome de tí. Yo besaré el culo de Jorge por tí. Tú, comedor de salchichas sin bollo y devorador de chucrut. “
Al decir esto, Juan arrastró a María al coche que los esperaba y arrancó a toda velocidad.

Tomado de http://www.jhuger.com/kisshank.mv

Dives sum, si non reddo eis quibus debeo.
I am a rich man as long as I don’t pay my creditors.

Titus Maccius Plautus (c. 254-184 BCE), “Curculio”

Themes

• Spain = Japan 2.0? – We argue that 1) the real estate crash in Spain is worse than is widely believed, 2) Spanish banks are hiding their losses, and 3) investors are smoking crack if they believe that Spanish banks are among the strongest in Europe, (see Forbes latest Spanish Banks In Top Form). If all these are true, Spain will soon have zombie banks like Japan.
• Banks are hiding losses - We believe that Spanish banks are not marking their real estate loans to market and are extending credit to zombie construction companies. They do this by 1) Getting a boost from accounting changes, 2) Not marking loans to market, 3) Continued lending to zombie companies, 4) Extending 40 year and 100% loan-to-value loans, and other bubble-like lending practices. We look at each of these in turn.
• Spain is in deflation – In a deflationary environment, servicing debt becomes even harder. Even when rates go to zero the real burden of debt goes up. That is why deflation is such a terrible thing. Eastern Europe, Spain and Ireland are now all experiencing the beginning of deflation. We believe that we will see much more deflation to come, which will have broad ramifications across the European banking sector.
• Who’s holding the bag? – The periphery countries are net debtors, and the rest of Europe is the net creditor. When a debtor can’t pay, the creditor suffers. Germany, France and others will need to cope with recapitalizing the periphery and Spain.

Strategies

We recommend shorting or being underweight Spanish government bonds vs German bonds and short equities, particularly banks, builders and anything related to the consumer.

Spain = Japan 2.0?

We hate to bang on about Spain like an old Salvation Army drum, but we believe that Spain is a disaster waiting to happen. Misunderstanding the severity of the crisis will prove costly to investors as it will have profound implications to the European banking system.
Spain is set for a long, painful deflation that will manifest itself via a very high unemployment level for an industrialized economy, a real estate collapse and general banking insolvencies.
Spain had the mother of all housing bubbles. To put things in perspective, Spain now has as many unsold homes as the US, even though the US is about six times bigger. Spain is roughly 10% of the EU GDP, yet it accounted for 30% of all new homes built since 2000 in the EU. Most of the new homes were financed with capital from abroad, so Spain’s housing crisis is closely tied in with a financing crisis.
The impact on the banking sector will be severe. Consider this: the value of outstanding loans to Spanish developers has gone from just €33.5 billion in 2000 to €318 billion in 2008, a rise of 850% in 8 years. If you add in construction sector debts, the overall value of outstanding loans to developers and construction companies rises to €470 billion. That’s almost 50% of Spanish GDP. Most of these loans will go bad.
Spanish banks, in our view, are now facing a very bleak outlook. Spain’s unemployment rate reached over 17%; there are now four million unemployed Spaniards and over one million families with not a single person employed in the family.
We argue and will document anecdotally in this report that:

• The real estate crash in Spain is worse than is widely believed, much as the subprime problem was much worse than people believed
• Spanish banks are hiding their losses and rolling over debt to zombie companies, much as Japan did in the last decade
• Investors are deluding themselves if they believe that Spanish banks are among the strongest in the world. (This is a new theme. See Forbes’s latest “Spanish Banks In Top Form” for an example of the new fawning articles on Spanish banks.)

If we are right, Spain will soon have zombie banks like Japan and it will face a prolonged period of deflation. However, Spain will be much worse. As Edward Hugh, the doyen of clear-headed analysts of Spain, points out, “Japan in 1992 could leverage its own savings, it had a current account surplus of 3% of GDP. Spain has massive external debt – in 2007 the current account deficit was 10% of GDP – and little in the way of major export industries.”

Putting Together A Mosaic

At Variant Perception, we try to stay away from writing too many words. Anything that cannot be explained with a few charts is most likely not worth explaining. In the case of Spanish banking’s subterfuge and hiding of bad loans, we have had to assemble a mosaic of news pieces, interviews with banking insiders and others to piece together what is in fact happening. This reminds us very much of the early days of subprime where all the banking results looked good, until they didn’t. We believe it will be the same with Spanish real estate.

The Situation In Spanish Housing Is Much Worse Than People Think

The standard line that most analysts buy about Spanish banks is the following:

• Dynamic provisioning – In 2000, Spain’s central bank introduced a system of “dynamic provisioning” that forced banks to build up reserves against future losses. Spanish banks reserved three to four times as much as most of their international competitors. In a sense, the Bank of Spain was building countercyclical buffers to prepare for an eventual credit crisis.
• Prudent lending – The large private Spanish banks claim that their risk management led them to concentrate mortgage lending on primary residences in the cities at reasonable loan-to-value ratios, leaving lending to developers and buyers of second homes to the Cajas.

However, despite dynamic provisioning, in the recent rally, Spanish banks have been rushing left, right and centre to shore up their capital. They have mainly done so by tapping their clueless retail customers for investment in preferred shares. It is a good start, but we believe they still have not done enough.
The magnitude of the Spanish problem is staggering, and will overwhelm all the benefits of dynamic provisioning. Conservatively, Spain has over 1,000,000 unsold homes. Unfortunately, many of the homes are on the coast, and without a return of overleveraged British tourists, they are likely to remain unsold. Spain’s homes are all in the wrong places.
Spain’s building stocks bubble looks very much like the US bubble and other classic bubbles. It went up 10x and then went down 90%. The math is very simple.

Given this woeful state of affairs, you might assume Spanish house prices had suffered like US house prices. This is not the case.
As the following chart shows, according to official statistics, Spanish house prices are down little more than 10% from their peaks.

Why have Spanish banks not experienced the same fate as American, Irish and UK banks? We’ve often wondered how it is that our thesis for Spanish real estate and industrial collapse has not created more victims.
We believe that Spanish banks are hiding their problems. We explore how they are doing this through:

1. Getting a boost from accounting changes
2. Not marking loans to market
3. Continued lending to zombie companies
4. Making 40 year and 100% loan-to-value loans

Let’s look at them in turn.
1) Getting a boost from accounting changes
The Bank of Spain is thought of as a very conservative, prudent institution. That is true, but it is now changing its tune. It must now be very concerned for the fate of some Spanish banks and some analysts estimate it will help them avoid posting losses this year.
In July the Bank of Spain changed its provisioning rules on risky mortgages. Previously, banks have made provision for the full value of loans above 80% of a loan to value ratio after two years of payment arrears. Following the new directives from the Bank of Spain, banks now only need to reserve for the difference between the value of the loan and 70% of the property’s market value. For many Spanish banks, this has allowed them not to lose money this year.
Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/adcd2d5c-725d-11de-ba94-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=4034778a-37aa-11dd-aabb-0000779fd2ac.html
Source: http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14133692&CFID=75849280&CFTOKEN=62919779
2) Not marking loans to market
We also believe that Spanish banks are not marking their books to market. According to an article from the 19th of April in Expansión, the Spanish equivalent of the Financial Times, entitled ‘Spanish banks control half of all real estate appraisals.’ , Spanish banks control 25% of appraisals directly and another 25% indirectly through their shareholdings.
In the words of Expansión:

The valuation of the guarantees of the mortgage book of the cajas and banks and of its real estate gains importance. The thirteen companies tied to financial entities represented 47% of all real estate appraisals in 2007.
The valuation of these real estate assets has taken on new importance for banks in the context of the current economic recession. The valuation of the mortgage guarantees and of the real estate assets they are taking on through the courts and debt for equity swaps is key to calibrate the solvency of the financial system. This situation has placed the focus once again on the links between banks and the real estate appraisers that goes beyond in many cases a mere commercial relationship.
Source: http://www.expansion.com/2009/04/19/inversion/1240172606.html

Official housing statistics are not corroborated by anecdotal evidence, web searches and the real estate sales by the banks themselves. According to a study by El Mundo, housing prices in many areas of the coasts have already dropped 30-50%.
Source: http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2009/08/07/suvivienda/1249655305.html
Spain also confronts to problems of banks essentially taking on defaulted assets onto their books at the stated value of the mortgage. The following comes from a highly regarded foreign surveyor in Spain, describing what happened to a client who had run into problems:

On the banking side, he stated that one development had already been taken back by the bank. However, the bank had ‘bought’ the development from the developer for the price of the mortgage. Thus they had converted a non-performing mortgage into a property asset. However, the bank is now the owner of a development it cannot sell and is unlikely to for a number of years and has a debt of its own in the purchase price ‘paid’. The banks are not experienced developers/property marketers and thus are building up problems for themselves, which must come to light at sometime, depending upon accounting practices. Alternatively, there is the potential that they are then bundling these discounted properties on to friends or holding property companies with notional loans and interest being rolled up until the property is sold.
Source: http://www.surveyspain.com/articles/asp-stats-comments.htm

3) Rolling over loans to zombie construction companies
In the last few weeks we’ve seen many Spanish property companies announce that they had refinanced their debt, which will postpone bankruptcy for a time. The latest to announce debt refinancing has been Realia, and before that Aisa, Afirma, Reyal Urbis, and Renta Corporacion. After the debacle of having to seize Colonial and Martinsa-Fadesa in 2008, Spanish banking stocks tanked and few Spanish bank executives want to see a repeat.
This lending to zombie developers will merely postpone the day of reckoning.
Banks have realized that instigating a bankruptcy process when builders can’t roll their loans or sell houses isn’t good for builders or for them. They now try to give as much rope to the builders as possible so that they don’t have to report large defaults. In the words of a banking insider:

As soon as a small business becomes delinquent, even if it is a longstanding client, it is “everyman for himself” and everyone runs away as if he has the plague. But in the case of the big builders, the bank is fed up with taking on more assets and gives them a line of credit so that they can at least pay interests on their existing debts and give them room for two years to see if things fix themselves and if they can pay the loan back.
Source: http://www.cotizalia.com/cache/2009/08/02/noticias_96_pymes_solventes_credito_inmobiliarias.html

The willingness of banks to play ball with developers shouldn’t come as a surprise. As they say in banking, “If you owe me a million, it is your problem. If you owe me a billion, it is my problem.”
4) Offering 100% Loan to Value loans, 40 year mortgages and other bubble-like practices.
Spanish banks are now the largest real estate holders in Spain. They have come to own properties through many different avenues. In order to hide from the effects of the real estate crash, Spanish banks have been buying properties before the loans on them go bad and trying to dispose of them through their own real estate companies. They have also come to own dozens of thousands of homes through debt for equity swaps. Estimates put the value of property repossessed or swapped for debt by Spanish banks at about €16 billion.
Spanish banks have websites set up to move their stock. Among selling points are: pricing discounts of 25-50%, financial terms of Euribor plus 0% over 40 years, and guarantees to re-purchase the property in the future.
Source: http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2009/05/19/suvivienda/1242718086.html
The lending to Spanish developers has been institutionalized in agreements between the banks and the main developer’s body, the Asociación de Promotores Constructores de España (APCE). Spanish banks will provide 40 year, 100% loan to value mortgages for any home that is discounted by 20% by a developer. The buyer has no need for a down payment. Santander signed such a deal with the APCE in order to reduce the stock of housing outstanding. This is another way to provide credit indirectly to zombie developers.
Source: http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2009/07/29/suvivienda/1248879035.html

What Is The Endgame For Spain?

As we pointed out in the last monthly commentary, Spain’s problem is tied in with the problem of the entire European periphery. The boom years following the adoption of the euro provided 1) easy money via negative real interest rates, and 2) overvaluation of prices as measured by real effective exchange rates.

Spain, and the rest of the European periphery, can solve their problems either through massive productivity gains, which is highly unlikely, or through a reduction in wages and prices in the order of 20-30%, which is what will happen slowly and painfully. You could call such a reduction of wages and prices an “internal devaluation”.
Such an internal devaluation will imply large losses to domestic banks and to external creditors. In the case of Eastern European countries, the damage will be bad, but not very large. In the case of Spain, writing off mortgage debt will be massive. We estimate that Spanish real estate losses will be over €250 billion when all is said and done. Clearly Spanish and foreign banks are unwilling to admit to the size of the problem and write off the debt. That is why the losses are being hidden.
Running large trade deficits is a form of dis-saving. Spain’s large growth in consumption has had to be financed by the rest of Europe. Spain’s trade deficit was among the highest in the world in absolute and relative terms at around 10% of GDP in late 2007.

Indeed, Spain’s current account deficit at one stage was the largest in the world besides the United States in absolute terms. The Spanish economy acted like a giant consumer sucking up savings from the rest of Europe.
The high degree of consumption in Spain has mostly come from external borrowing and has not been financed out of existing savings.

How bad is that relative to other countries? Spain’s external debt is extremely high in relative and absolute terms. It is among the highest in the world, the fifth largest:

Real Interest Rates: Deflation Is A Bitch

Eastern Europe, Spain and Ireland are now all experiencing the beginning of deflation. We believe that we will see much more deflation to come, which will have broad ramifications across the European banking sector. The periphery countries are net debtors, and the rest of Europe is the net creditor. When a debtor can’t pay, the creditor suffers. Germany, France and others will need to cope with recapitalizing the periphery and Spain. In the words of Plautus, “I am a rich man as long as I don’t pay my creditors.” A deflationary spiral means that most of the debt will need to be written off, and the creditors will have to absorb the losses.
In a deflationary environment, servicing debt becomes even harder. Even when rates go to zero, prices and wages can go down faster and the real burden of debt can still go up. That is why deflation is such a terrible thing.
Spain now has negative CPI and PPI

Inflation in Spain has been negative for the last three months in a row. Spain has not experienced a similar decline in inflation like this in over 47 years. However, the Bank of Spain and the government are behaving like ostriches with their heads in the sand.
The problem with deflation is that even low interest rates are extremely high. Despite massive cuts by the ECB, real interest rates in Spain are still elevated due to negative CPI and PPI.

Spain is not the only country facing deflation. It is a problem for the entire European periphery. Ireland, for example, has the highest rate of deflation in the world. Prices in Ireland are falling at an annual rate of 5.9%, well ahead of the drops in other countries – only Thailand, at 4.4%, comes even close.
We believe that Ireland’s experience is what Spain will see more of in the months ahead as the economy slowly adjusts to new realities. Almost all of Ireland’s banks have been taken over by the government, and Ireland is struggling to decide how best to dispose of its bad assets. We believe Spain will be much more like Ireland than any of its European neighbours.
Oddly, even though inflation is negative, and unemployment is high, unions are still winning pay rises. Most wage agreements in Spain are reached through collective bargaining on an industry level. So far, wage increases are happening above the ECB’s 2% target inflation rate. (It should come as no surprise that businesses try to get around wage bargaining. Last year almost five million jobs were temporary in Spain.)

Given how far out of line wages are with unit labor costs and the reality of deflation in Spain, we see Spain’s unemployment level heading towards 25%. With a 25% unemployment rate and a debt deflationary dynamic, how exactly do the banks think they’ll be paid back? Who will earn the money to pay the mortgage payments, and how will housing be affordable when wages have been deflated? Assuming the worst has passed in Spain does not pass the common sense test.
We believe Spanish politicians and international investors have grossly misjudged Spain, but events will force them to change their mind. In retrospect Spain will be viewed much like subprime where all the banking results looked good, until they didn’t. This is typical of bubbles, and Spain will be no different.

John F. Mauldin johnmauldin@investorsinsight.com

El banco Kaupthing, el mayor de Islandia hasta su colapso por la crisis financiera, concedió poco antes de derrumbarse créditos millonarios, en parte sin garantías, a grandes accionistas y a amigos de éstos, denuncia hoy el diario Fréttabladid de Reikiavik.

Los cinco principales beneficiarios de ese grupo recibieron unos 5.000 millones de euros, cifra que equivale a un presupuesto completo del Gobierno de la isla atlántica, de sólo 320.000 habitantes.

El fin de semana, el servicio de Internet wikileaks.org publicó una lista interna de deudores clasificada, elaborada por el Kaupthing dos semanas antes del colapso de los tres principales bancos islandeses a principios del pasado octubre.

Según esa lista, el grupo financiero Exista, el principal accionista individual de Kaupthing hasta entonces, debía a la entidad, junto con un gran accionista propio, 450 millones de euros. Un miembro del consejo de vigilancia de Exista aparece en el listado con créditos por mil millones de euros.

Unos 300.000 clientes de Kaupthing tuvieron que esperar seis meses para que les fueran devueltos los fondos que tenían en el banco, por valor de 300 millones de euros. Los tres bancos que quebraron y que fueron estatalizados dejaron a Islandia deudas diez veces superiores al PIB del país. Como consecuencia de la grave crisis financiera, el desempleo hasta entonces inexistente subió al 10 por ciento de la población, se produjo una gran devaluación de la moneda local, la corona, y aumentaron las tasas de interés.

El Gobierno solicitó en julio que Islandia sea admitida en la Unión Europea. (dpa)

-fuente-

Como no podía ser de otra manera el amigo no ha tardado ni una semana en sacar un nuevo temazo.

Os dejo aquí su nueva canción titulada Michael Jackson is Dead.

Macacos todos,

Bien sabida por todos ustedes es la afición de algunos miembros de esta comunidad a aparecer en forma de Trolls en distintos medios de comunicación. Pues bién, hoy estamos orgullosos de nuestro trabajo.

Aquí les dejo un pantallazo del texto publicado

Y por supesto un link a la noticia en cuestión

Para el que no sepa que es un verso acróstico, que si no no tiene gracia la publicación

Un saludo.

-Bueno, lo de cada año: Montamos un buen pitote, que se nos vea indignaos y eso y luego nos vamos a cruspir unas raciones de gambicas al bar de abajo.

-Entre bomberos tampoco nos vamos a pisar lo que representa la manguera. Invitas tú.

Gran Diputado

Documental finlandés sobre el pollastre que tenemos montado por aquí abajo. V.O. el 90% del tiempo, atención al momento escobazo: impagable -literamente-

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ZUDVG0YR

O cómo timar a un país entero. -atención, ladrillo a babor-

Miss Iceland 2008

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/04/iceland200904